CNP sold at the open 0.275, market switch is off so no new entries this week.

Frriday 27th Results

CNP closed below it's exit on Friday and will be sold in the opening auction Monday 30th

P Taker

P Hybrid

P Runner

I'm starting up another portfolio which is going to be run along the same lines as the P Hybrid portfolio but will have a nominal 20 positions instead of 10.
This means that the theoretical starting capital will have to be $100k instead of $50k as the individual positions will be the same size ie $5k.
In order not to complicate this blog which has already got 3 portfolios running on it, I'll start another blog to compare the two portfolios with different number of positions.
This is to test the theory that a 20 position portfolio is twice as likely to catch the rockets as a 10 position portfolio.
Hybrid20 portfolio is here  http://hybrid20.wordpress.com/

Friday 20th November

No exits hit this week, the XAO fell 0.34%, P Taker fell  1.52%, P Hybrid fell 1.48%, and P Runner fell 1.45%

Open equity at the close of the week ending 20/11/09
P Taker

P Hybrid

P Runner

Bought CNP yesterday @ 0.31, so with CER that's enough Real Estate exposure.
Portfolio heat is now a nominal 6%  so I shan't take on any more risk, even though there is capital available, until another holding gets it's exit above the purchase price.
Here is a list of the Holdings with Indices and Sectors;
CER       Small Ords     Real Estate
CGG      Small Ords     Materials
CNP      Small Ords     Real Estate
(HZN     Small Ords     Energy)
MCP      All Ords         Consumer Discretionary - Consumer Durables & Apparel
(SFH      All Ords         Consumer Discretionary - Retailing)
SOT       All Ords         Telecommunication Services
SXE       All Ords         Industrial - Capital Goods

Bracketed stocks not in P Taker Portfolio
All the above stocks are in theP Hybrid and P Runner portfolios.
Looking forward to having enough closed trades to have some statistics..

Bought CER yesterday at 0.17 cost $4979.98 + $19.95 = $4999.93
My bid on IRN yesterday at $1.03 wasn't filled so the "good for day" order will auto-cancel.
Today I have a set-up on CNP so will put in a limit bid @ 0.32

Have set-ups on CER and IRN today, put in limit bids of 0.17 on CER and 1.03 on IRN

I estimate each new position to have an initial portfolio risk of 1.5%,  I treat the position risk as zero when the exit is above the entry price.
I have approx 3% portfolio heat on each portfolio at the moment and I'll go to 6%, so I can take on 2 more positions.

These are the results of the 3 portfolios as at Frid 13/11/09. The 3 portfolios are called Profit Taker, Profit Runner and the newly synthesised  middle of the road portfolio will be called Profit Hybrid, (P taker, P Runner and P Hybrid for short.)
P Hybrid has had the same buys and sells as P Taker but only half the number of shares have been sold.

P Taker Open Positions

P Taker Closed Trades

P Hybrid Open Positions

P Hybrid Closed Trades

P Runner Open Positions

P Runner Closed Trades

The P Hybrid portfolio has a total open equity of $56733.98 which is approx halfway between P Taker's $56176.56 and P Runner's $57331.25  (The difference is half the cost of 2 brokerage fees)

Then there were 3

It occurred to me that as one weekly portfolio adheres to the principle "You'll never go broke taking a profit" and the other weekly portfolio is testing the "Let your profits run" principle, it seems likely that one will perform better in certain market conditions than the other, and as the market is constantly changing it's possible that a hybrid of the two might perform best overall.
So to test that theory I'll be starting a third portfolio which will be identical to the other two portfolios except for the exit, where if a sell  signal occurs, half the position will be sold to take some profit and half will be kept to let profits run. I will call this new portfolio P Hybrid, although P Soup and P Stew were tempting alternatives :)

Midweek portfolio updates showing cash position after Monday's sells.
P Taker portfolio

P Runner portfolio

P Taker, sold SFH, THG and VBA at the open.

P Runner, sold THG and VBA at the open

8 weeks from start

Results 06//11/09
Profit Taker portfolio

SFH, THG and VBA hit their weekly exits and will be sold at the open on Monday 09/11/09.

Profit Runner portfolio

In this portfolio only THG and VBA will be sold on Monday's open.

The All Ords is up from 4596.5 to 4604.4 for the 8 weeks which is a 0.17% increase.

The P Taker portfolio is up 7.5% and P Runner is up 8.5% over the same period.

No new positions will be taken this week as my market switch is off.

Portfolio split

I'm going to duplicate the current stocks in the weekly portfolio and start another weekly portfolio with a different exit strategy.

One that will not be as quick to sell but should hold positions longer.

This will give an interesting comparison between two portfolios, one where profits are taken and the other where profits are left to run.
I would expect that in the short term the profit taker portfolio will do better, but in the long run the profit runner portfolio  should do the best out of the two.

So today 2 stocks FMS and HZN were sold in the P Taker portfolio at the open, but in the P Runner portfolio only one (FMS) was sold, and HZN was kept.

This blog has now changed from a simple record of trades in one portfolio to a comparison of two trading methods, taking profits and letting them run.